Bitcoin's rapid surge past $109,000 this week shows telltale signs of "smart money" whale behaviour—precisely what hedge-fund mogul Paul Tudor Jones describes as early-mover signalling at market turning points.
Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and the trader who infamously "called" the 1987 crash, argues that "smart money" (i.e., the significant, widely informed capital supplied by institutions and whales) serves to market turning points.
On-chain data indicates transaction sizes above $1 million spiked to multi-month highs in mid-May, several days before the surge. This uptick in whale activity mirrors past situations where institutional capitulation quietly laid the groundwork for a profound rally.
The Playbook was spotlighted in August–September 2020 after MicroStrategy committed $425 million to Bitcoin. Square and Tesla soon followed , sparking a bull run from around $10,000 to over $60,000 by April 2021.
However, as Coinbase listed on the Nasdaq in April, on-chain trackers noticed a 15% fall in wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC—the first profit-taking stage that would precede a 55% price crash by mid-2022.
Data from Chainalysis states that during Bitcoin's 2018 bear market, big holders were net buyers by the time Bagholders capitulated, which in turn helped stabilize the prices.
Something similar happened in November 2022: during five short minutes, the collapse of FTX threw Bitcoin under $16,000, the "super whales" (people who hold 10,000+ BTC) were buying more, gambling on a rebound that took place in 2023.
Jones, who famously allocated to Bitcoin in 2020, calling it the ''fastest horse'' in a world full of monetary stimulus, believes that moving with deep pockets provides the clearest macro signal.
"The best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse. If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin."
Given Bitcoin's history, he has some grounds to believe that every major rally has seen big institutions load up on Bitcoin, while every major top has seen silent distribution.
Paul Tudor Jones ‘smart money' is written all over Bitcoin's bull run first appeared on TheStreet on May 26, 2025