Apple analyst raises alarm about earnings, revenue growth originally appeared on TheStreet .
Sorry, Apple, wrong number.
The number in question comes from Counterpoint Research and it's regarding smartphones.
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The firm revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% year-on-year from 4.2% due to “renewed uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs.”
Growth projections at both Apple and Samsung ( SSNGY ) were reduced as cost increases were expected to be passed on to consumers, hurting demand, Counterpoint said. That's despite some easing of the tariff burden compared with earlier worst-case scenarios.
In April President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on imports from countries worldwide, but days later he exempted smartphones and other electronics from those duties.
"All eyes are on Apple
(
AAPL
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and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market," Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee said in a statement.
Research firm cites strong sales of Apple iPhone 16
"Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia.”
Counterpoint said Apple’s iPhone 16 was the bestselling smartphone in the first quarter.
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This also marked the return of the iPhone series base variant to the top spot in Q1 after a two-year gap, the firm said. Apple maintained its strong presence in the top-10 list, securing five spots for the fifth consecutive March quarter.
"We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple, driven by the iPhone 16 series’ strong performance in Q1 2025," Lee said.
In addition, Lee said that trends in creating premium positioning — a strategy to sell more expensive and more profitable versions of a product — remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia and the six Arab nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council..
"These are long-term tailwinds for iPhones," she said.
The iPhone is Apple’s biggest selling product, posting $46.8 billion in second-quarter sales, up 2% year-over-year. That's almost half the company’s overall revenue of $95.4 billion.
This is some potentially good news for global smartphone shipment growth in 2025 — just not for Apple.
“The bright spot this year – again – will likely be Huawei,” Associate Director Ethan Qi said.
“We are seeing an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei grab substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home.”
Over the past month, CNN reported , Trump has said he’d like to target two specific and very different companies — Apple and Mattel ( MAT ) — with tariffs aimed at their key products because of comments by their CEOs.
Trump had praised Apple CEO Tim Cook when the company announced plans for $500 billion in US investment. But Cook later said he intended to shift production of iPhones bound for the US market to India from China.
“I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone’s that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else,” Trump posted on Truth Social late last month.
Related: Apple users will hate the latest news from Capitol Hill
“If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S.”
Trump later that day clarified that the tariffs would be on all imported smartphones, including those by Apple rivals like South Korea’s Samsung, noting, “Otherwise, it wouldn’t be fair.”
Needham downgrades Apple stock; no target
Last month Apple beat Wall Street’s fiscal-second-quarter earnings expectations.
The company said that it expected tariffs to add $900 million to its costs for the current quarter, but Cook said it was very difficult” to predict beyond June “because I’m not sure what will happen with tariffs.”
Needham analysts are concerned about Apple's near-term revenue and earnings growth and they downgraded the company to hold from buy without a price target.
The Needham analysts say that Apple's rivals are creating new products that compete with those of the Cupertino, Calif., tech giant, TheFly and Yahoo Finance report.
In addition, Needham said, Apple trades at a forward year-2026 price-to-earnings multiple of more than 26, "which looks expensive on several metrics."
Needham said that for the stock to work, Apple must have the catalyst of an iPhone replacement cycle, which the firm does not foresee in the next 12 months.
Until then, the $170-$180 share range is a better entry level. At last check the stock was trading above $203.
If Apple decided to aggressively pursue an advertising revenue stream, it could materially accelerate its revenue and earnings growth, Needham added.
The firm said that it preferred shares of Alphabet ( GOOGL ) and Amazon ( AMZN ) to Apple. Despite Apple's premium valuation, it is growing revenue and margins the slowest among its big tech competitors.
Apple analyst raises alarm about earnings, revenue growth first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 4, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 4, 2025, where it first appeared.