Is a Recession Coming or Not? Here Are Both Sides of the Coin

The debate over whether the U.S. is heading into a recession in 2025 is intensifying, with economists, policymakers and business leaders offering conflicting perspectives. While some indicators suggest an economic downturn is imminent, others point to resilience and potential for continued growth.

Is a recession coming or not? Here are both sides of the coin.

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Arguments Suggesting a Recession Is Coming

Declining GDP and Consumer Spending

According to Trading Economics, the U.S. economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since early 2022. In addition, a PNC Bank analysis found that consumer spending has also slowed to 0.3% after a 3.7% increase in March as consumers attempted to get ahead of anticipated tariffs.

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Tariffs and Trade Tensions

President Trump’s tariff policies have led to increased import costs, contributing to inflation and supply chain disruptions. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an international body that monitors global economic trends, has downgraded U.S. growth projections to 1.6% for 2025, citing these trade policies as a significant drag on the economy.

Rising Unemployment and CEO Pessimism

At a recent meeting, Federal Reserve officials said the job market was anticipated to deteriorate significantly, with the unemployment rate projected to rise above the staff’s estimate of its natural level by the end of this year and stay elevated beyond that natural rate until at least 2027.

Additionally, CEO confidence has plummeted, with 83% predicting a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, according to a survey by The Conference Board , a non-profit research organization. The organization’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is widely used to predict the direction of the U.S. economy.

Inverted Yield Curve and Recession Indicators

According to J.P. Morgan data , the yield curve inversion, a traditional recession predictor, has persisted since July 2022. While its reliability is debated, the New York Fed’s model estimates a 51% probability of a recession starting within a year, with a confidence interval ranging from 39% to 64%.

Arguments Suggesting a Recession Is Not Imminent

Strong Labor Market and Consumer Spending

Despite concerns, the labor market remains robust, with unemployment at 4.2% and continued job growth, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics .

Consumer spending, a key economic driver, has shown resilience, supporting the argument against an immediate recession . For example, data from the Washington Retail Association showed that in March, retail sales increased by 1.4%, driven by higher spending on cars, dining out and apparel.

Federal Reserve’s Cautious Approach

The Federal Reserve has maintained steady interest rates, balancing concerns over inflation and economic growth.

“The U.S. economy is still on a firm footing, but uncertainty has notably increased since the beginning of the year. In this environment, monetary policy will need to carefully balance our dual-mandate goals of price stability and maximum employment,” Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook said at a recent meeting.

It’s Just a Vibe

Some economists suggest the U.S. may be experiencing a “vibecession,” where negative public sentiment does not align with economic fundamentals, according to ClearBridge. This disconnect implies that while people feel pessimistic, the economy may not be in an actual recession .

Beyond the Numbers

While official declarations of recession rely on two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, some economists argue that the reality of a downturn is already unfolding, both in data and in everyday life.

“Although there are still some economic sectors where activity remains and this may create the illusion of stability because the real situation remains tense,” said Julia Khandoshko, CEO of Mind Money .

“Everything that happens with debts and bonds exerts systemic pressure. Many people think that there is no recession until it is announced. This is a big mistake. In fact, when it is officially recognized, everything will be felt in the wallet for a long time,” Khandoshko explained.

As uncertainty grows, Khandoshko said the smartest move is to prepare for a recession rather than trying to predict it.

“Think in advance how to reduce unnecessary expenses, postpone major purchases, try to reduce debts and form your safe haven,” she said. “Because if everything goes according to a bad scenario, the speed at which the situation will change will be high.”

Editor’s note on political coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com .

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