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Tariffs to trigger sharp US economic slowdown; chance of recession jumps to 45%: Reuters poll

An aggressive U.S. tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50%, according to economists polled by Reuters. A sudden 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs on trading partners imposed by President Donald Trump hasn't done much to improve the U.S. outlook given a trade war with its biggest trading partner, China, is escalating and damaging business sentiment. Most forecasters, like U.S. consumers in recent months, have significantly raised their inflation expectations.

S&P 500, Nasdaq advance after selloff; UnitedHealth plunges

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose on Thursday on the final trading day of the week, with focus on U.S.-Japan tariff talks, while a slump in UnitedHealth's shares following a forecast cut by the insurer weighed on the Dow. After steep losses on Wednesday, investors found some optimism from U.S. President Donald Trump's comments on "big progress" in trade talks with Japan. Meanwhile, UnitedHealth plummeted 17.2% after lowering its annual profit forecast on expectations of high medical costs for the rest of the year.