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Traders boost bets Fed will start cutting rates in May

Traders boosted bets on Tuesday the Federal Reserve will start cutting its policy rate as soon as next month, as the White House said additional tariffs on imports from China will go into effect on Wednesday in a further escalation of trade hostilities that could slow the economy. Traders put about a 56% chance of a Fed interest-rate cut in May, up from about 40% earlier in the day, based on the prices of short-term U.S. interest-rate futures traded at CME Group. They expect at least four more rate cuts through the end of the year.

Fed's Goolsbee: 'way bigger' than expected tariffs pose inflation risks

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that U.S. President Donald Trump's announced tariffs are "way bigger" than had been modeled, and it's unclear how quickly or fully those higher costs will be passed on to consumers and to what degree businesses and consumers may react by hunkering down, slowing the economy. "We just lived through and learned what happens when inflation is raging out of control," Goolsbee said in an interview with Illinois Public Radio, in which he called tariffs a "negative supply shock" to which the Federal Reserve's response isn't necessarily clear.

EU markets watchdog warns of crypto-related financial stability risks

The European Union's securities watchdog warned on Tuesday that problems in the cryptocurrency industry could pose risks to broader financial stability in future, as the sector grows and as ties between it and traditional financial markets increase. The appeal for caution from the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) comes as U.S. economic policies roil global markets and U.S. authorities look to remove some of the barriers between crypto and traditional banking sectors. "EU financial markets are, as we speak, under severe strain coming from the broader political and geopolitical developments," ESMA executive director Natasha Cazenave said in a speech to the European Parliament posted on the watchdog's website.